Stonewallers or Railroaders?

The fact that Greeks and Turks have taken their battle to European and international centre-stage is a victory for Greece. Turkey, the more muscular neighbour, always supported friendly chats across the garden fence. Why bring the authorities into it? Greece, meanwhile, invoked international law. Attitudes have changed little.

By John Psaropoulos, Athens News
Reprinted by Permission

The past week has seen Turkey trying to couple Cyprus' entry into the European Union with a political settlement on the island, with the European army and with Turkey's own EU aspirations, while Greece tries to uncouple the added cars from the Cypriot engine -- or rather, make sure the cars are never attached. The aim, from Turkey's point of view, is to encumber Cyprus' entry into its first station -- European Union membership.

Turkey's railroading arguments go as follows:

1. Turkey insists that Cyprus should not enter the EU with its political division unresolved. Since Turkey holds the key to resolving it -- it is by far the more intransigent interlocutor -- it can control the speed with which Cyprus negotiates a settlement. This potentially allows it to string along a negotiation indefinitely. The trouble is that Greece has already persuaded its EU partners not to tie a settlement to entry. Diplomatic sources say George Papandreou's reminder to EU foreign ministers of their commitment to admit Cyprus without a solution went over well this week.

2. Recep Tayyip Erdogan toured European capitals all week hoping to persuade leaders to admit Cyprus only when they finally admit Turkey. At the very least, he asked, could Turkey have a firm date upon which its own accession talks will begin? No, said the Europeans. Commission chief Romano Prodi reminded him of the need to implement political and human rights reforms first. Greece fully supports giving Turkey a starting date. The friction is with the rest of Europe, where the consensus seems to be that the best Turkey can hope for in December is a commitment for a date, not the date itself.

3. The UN's proposed plan for Cyprus contains a clause which prevents the island from admitting international troops on its soil without the prior consent of Greece and Turkey. This, Turkey says, would make it impossible for Cyprus, as an EU member, to be a party to any standard rules on a European army, so why not wait to resolve both issues at once? The trouble here is that all 15 EU members agreed on a formula for the operation of a European army in Brussels last month. Turkey stands alone if it attempts to disrupt an EU-Nato agreement at the Nato summit in Prague on November 21-22. But technically, it can.

The fact that Greeks and Turks have taken their battle to European and international centre-stage is a victory for Greece. Turkey, the more muscular neighbour, always supported friendly chats across the garden fence. Why bring the authorities into it? Greece, meanwhile, invoked international law. Attitudes have changed little.

Prime minister Costas Simitis recently told reporters how negotiations over Cyprus will work: "The other side [Turkey] will level objections on all issues. We must do the same, and through negotiation focus on the ones that interest us. " He added, "We shall fight, and try to achieve the best thing possible."

Here is how Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash explained negotiations to reporters on the same day: "To say it could be negotiated does not mean to accept it. Negotiation means: this is what I want; I do not accept this or that. Naturally this is a method, this is an approach. Instead of refusing right away, you have to say which things lead you to refuse."

The statements provide an inkling of the two sides' psychology and disposal towards talks. The Greek side is ready to take risks towards a solution. The Turkish-Cypriot side indicates a desire to plan a deadlock. Turkey's refusal to signal a willingness to negotiate on the basis of the UN plan is part of that deadlock. Denktash's sickness may be a factor, but as an excuse for the Turkish government it is wearing thin.

This standoff can be expected to last until the Copenhagen summit, where Cyprus ought to be admitted to the EU along with another nine countries. In the meantime, the Greek side is toughening up its response to the Turkish stand. George Papandreou, who normally avoids stressing the negative, openly called upon Denktash to stop stonewalling and give his people a chance to live in the European Union.

It is easy to forget that the week began with a short idyll. In a historic meeting, Simitis began a new relationship with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Since earthquake diplomacy brought Greece and Turkey closer in 1999, the two foreign ministers have personified the new friendship. Bulent Ecevit never visited Simitis, nor Simitis Ecevit. Now the warm climate has reached the top level. Whether it survives the winter will depend on Erdogan's ability to persuade his fellow-Turks that they w ill cut more ice with the European Union by showing goodwill first, and asking for the payback later.



(Posted 23 January 2003. Reproduced with permission.)

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